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03 November 2008 @ 06:10 pm
State of the Race 11/3:

Just 1 day until the election and it appears that Obama has a stranglehold on victory. I would say that Obama has a 99% chance to win assuming the polls aren't horrendously wrong. The national polls have collapsed to a 5-9 point race and if those are accurate, the state polls are largely irrelevant. Anything over a 2-3 point national popular vote win is essentially a guaranteed victory based on the way things inevitably shake out in the electoral college. There is still a plausible scenario for a McCain victory but it's going to a clear surge in a few states that polls don't currently project.

The media is going to be all over what states and counties to watch so I won't bother laying that out. One non-presidential issue that is going to be very interesting is if the Democrats get to 60 in the Senate. Right now they look to have a decent chance to get to 59. The 60th seat, if they get it, will likely come from Georgia. However, there's an interesting quirk in Georgia law. If no candidate reaches 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff election on December 2nd. That means if the Democrats get to 59 (as they probably will if Al Franken wins in Minnesota), then the Chambliss/Martin race will become incredibly important and, if neither candidate reaches 50% tomorrow, will likely become the most insane month of a senate election ever. Both parties will dump millions into it and things will get extremely nasty. Just something to pay attention to tomorrow, in order for this scenario to occur, Dems need to win in VA, CO, AK, NM, NH, OR, NC, and MN, many of which are likely victories.

As you can see, this election is probably all about those leaning states. Obama basically just needs to come up with 27 electoral votes (26 to tie) between Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada to win the election, all of which have a clear lean in his direction at this point. So it's either win PA and 1 other or sweep Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada to all but guarantee victory.

On to the states...

Obama Locks: (217 electoral votes)
California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)

Obama Almost Locks: (26 electoral votes)
Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5)

Obama Leaning: (48 electoral votes)
Colorado (9)- Projected lead of 4-8 points
Nevada (5)- Projected lead of 4-8 points
Pennsylvania (21)- Projected lead of 4-8 points
Virginia (13)- Projected lead of 3-7 points

Obama Toss-ups: (47 electoral votes)
Florida (27)- Projected lead of (-1)-3 points
Ohio (20)- Projected lead of (-2)-4 points***

McCain Toss-ups: (43 electoral votes)
Indiana (11)- Projected lead of (-1)-2 points
Missouri (11)-Projected lead of (-1)-1 point
Montana (3)- Projected lead of (-1)-4 points
North Carolina (15)- Projected lead of (-2)-2 points
North Dakota (3)- Projected lead of (-2)-2 points

McCain Leaning: (27 electoral votes)
Arizona (10)- Projected lead of 3-7 points
Georgia (15)- Projected lead of 3-7 points
Nebraska District 1 and 2* (2)- Projected lead of 3-7 points

McCain Almost Locks: (37 electoral votes)**
Arkansas (6), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), West Virginia (5)

McCain Locks: (93 electoral votes)
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Nebraska (3)*, Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

*Nebraska divides its electoral votes by district and at-large. Maine does too but it appears all districts are locked up.
**A number of these Southern states appear to be locks and Obama only stands a chance if there is a massive African-American turnout.
***Ohio's polls have been particularly variable, even among reliable pollsters, so it's very hard to project which way the state will fall. Frankly anything between -3 and +7 wouldn't be too surprising.

Locks/Almost Locks: Obama 243, McCain 130
With Leaners: Obama 291, McCain 157, Tossup 90
With Tossups: Obama 338, McCain 200
 
 
31 October 2008 @ 09:26 pm
"Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win."- McCain campaign memo

They're beginning to sound as delusional as the Clinton campaign in May and June. I guess they have no choice considering they can't afford to lose any votes due to an "it's over, why bother?" effect. Drudge is certainly doing the best he can to pretend there is any evidence this is a close race. Right now, it looks like a 90% chance that Obama will win. 7 of the 10% for McCain comes from the chance that the polling is horribly wrong, not any belief he's really in it based on all the evidence.
 
 
27 October 2008 @ 06:30 pm
State of the Race 10/27:

Just 8 days to go and little has changed. Some states are teetering back and forth between categories but a lot of that is probably just margin of error stuff appearing to be shifts. In the interest of not being shocked on Election Day, I'd consider anything below +5 to still be a real tossup and even the 5-8s aren't really locked in even on this late date. Looking at some of the states/groups of states separately....
Pennsylvania/Iowa- Both appear to be safe Obama but McCain is still pursuing them. I'm not sure if the races are closer than it appears or he has just no other choice but to widen the field and hope for a state with more older, white voters. The lead in both states appears to be 8-12.
New Hampshire- It's only 4 electoral votes so not a big concern probably but it slipped a bit this week. It seems the state relishes the thought of keeping everyone guessing.
Virginia- So far, this looks to be the one that will put Obama over 270. Most polls have him up 7-10 but apparently VA has a reputation for breaking toward the Republican on Election Day so perhaps he'll have to pull it out a tough one.
Colorado- Firewall state #2, lead appears pretty stable in the 5-7 range.
Nevada- The best looking of the tossup states. My instincts say Obama can count on a 3-5 point win.
Ohio/Florida/North Carolina/Missouri- They keep bounding around but it does appear Obama leads in all of them. The question is whether he leads by 0.5% or as much as 5%. I certainly wouldn't count on any of them as locks on Election Day though Obama appears to improving his standing in Ohio in the last few days for some reason.
Indiana- I'm being conservative and leaving it in McCain's column, it might have tipped slightly to Obama though. This would be the real landslide state though and I believe its polls close at 7 Eastern so you might get a good idea how the night will go based on early returns there.
Montana/North Dakota- Look to be tight races but there's not much polling for either state.
Georgia- It looks like Obama is still down but the race will probably hinge on black turnout. If it's high, 29-32%, Obama could win.
Arizona- Surprisingly, McCain appears to be struggling in his home state. The last 3 polls have him up just 2, 4, and 5 though I doubt Obama will win.

Changes since 10/20:
Arizona moves from McCain 8+ to McCain 5-8
Indiana moves from McCain 2-5 to McCain < 2
Missouri moves from Obama 2-5 to Obama < 2
Montana moves from McCain 5-8 to McCain 2-5
New Hampshire moves from Obama 8+ to Obama 5-8
North Carolina moves from Obama 2-5 to Obama < 2
North Dakota moves from McCain 5-8 to McCain 2-5
Ohio moves from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-5

Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin:
[260] Obama 8+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)
[26] Obama 5-8: Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13)
[25] Obama 2-5: Nevada (5), Ohio (20)
[53] Obama < 2: Florida (27), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15)
[11] McCain < 2: Indiana (11)
[6] McCain 2-5: Montana (3), North Dakota (3)
[30] McCain 5-8: Arizona (10), Georgia (15), West Virginia (5)
[127] McCain 8+: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

8+: Obama 260, McCain 127
5+: Obama 286, McCain 157
2+: Obama 311, McCain 163
Total: Obama 364, McCain 174
 
 
20 October 2008 @ 11:34 pm
State of the Race 10/20:

15 days to go, switching to Monday updates so the last one will be the day before the election. Basically the race has come down to this. Obama appears to have a strong lead in 264 electoral votes. That means he needs just 6 more to win the election (5 to tie and take it to the House and probably win a brutal fight). At this point, Obama is also doing quite well in Virginia and Colorado, either one of which would clinch the election. He's also winning in other states so he just needs to hold one of them, the one would presumably be in Colorado or Virginia though. Obama's lead appears to have slipped off the peak but it's still strong and McCain needs a big shift to get to 270. Keep in mind given the volatility of polling that you really can't trust much so it's probably best to view the race in the 264 + 1 more state scenario than getting too hung up on polling averages. I'm also changing the # system to 8+, 5-8, 2-5, and less than 2.

Changes since 10/15:
Florida moves from Obama 2-5 to Obama < 2
North Carolina moves from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-5
Ohio moves from Obama 2-5 to Obama < 2
Virginia moves from Obama 2-5 to Obama 5-8
West Virginia moves from McCain 2-5 to McCain 5-8

Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin:
[264] Obama 8+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)
[22] Obama 5-8: Colorado (9), Virginia (13)
[31] Obama 2-5: Missouri (11), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15)
[47] Obama < 2: Florida (27), Ohio (20)
[0] McCain < 2:
[11] McCain 2-5: Indiana (11)
[26] McCain 5-8: Georgia (15), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), West Virginia (5)
[137] McCain 8+: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

8+: Obama 264, McCain 137
5+: Obama 286, McCain 163
2+: Obama 317, McCain 174
Total: Obama 364, McCain 174
 
 
14 October 2008 @ 07:13 pm
State of the Race 10/15:

Three weeks to go and Obama still holds a commanding lead. I imagine tomorrow's debate will probably be the beginning of the end for McCain if nothing major happens.

Changes since 10/8:
Colorado moves from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10
Iowa moves from Obama 6-10 to Obama 10+
Michigan moves from Obama 6-10 to Obama 10+
Missouri moves from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-6
North Dakota moves from McCain 10+ to McCain 6-10
Ohio moves from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-6
Wisconsin moves from Obama 6-10 to Obama 10+

Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin:
[241] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)
[32] Obama 6-10: Colorado (9), Maine (4), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5)
[76] Obama 2-6: , Florida (27), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13)
[15] Obama < 2: North Carolina (15)
[0] McCain < 2:
[16] McCain 2-6: Indiana (11), West Virginia (5)
[61] McCain 6-10: Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Texas (34)
[97] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 241, McCain 97
6+: Obama 273, McCain 158
2+: Obama 349, McCain 174
Total: Obama 364, McCain 174
 
 
 
07 October 2008 @ 05:34 pm
State of the Race 10/8:

Doing this early because I'm busy tomorrow. Another week, more gains for Obama. The election is 4 weeks from today so still plenty of time but it will probably take a real change to turn this election.

Changes since 10/1:
Florida moved from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-6
Minnesota moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10
Missouri moved from McCain < 2 to Obama < 2
Nevada moved from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-6
New Hampshire moved from Obama < 2 to Obama 6-10
New Jersey moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 10+
Pennsylvania moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 10+
Texas moved from McCain 10+ to McCain 6-10
Wisconsin moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10

Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin:
[207] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11)
[57] Obama 6-10: Iowa (7), Maine (4), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Wisconsin (10)
[54] Obama 2-6: Colorado (9), Florida (27), Nevada (5), Virginia (13)
[46] Obama < 2: Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20)
[0] McCain < 2:
[16] McCain 2-6: Indiana (11), West Virginia (5)
[58] McCain 6-10: Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Montana (3), Texas (34)
[100] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 207, McCain 100
6+: Obama 264, McCain 158
2+: Obama 318, McCain 174
Total: Obama 364, McCain 174
 
 
05 October 2008 @ 06:35 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xyDc8mlJ50

My 3rd attempt at an ad for Obama.
 
 
01 October 2008 @ 05:06 pm
State of the Race 10/1:

Just 34 days til the election and Obama is taking a commanding lead. It might recede of course but it's looking good at the moment. The combination of the McCain convention bump disappearing, people turning against Sarah Palin, and greater trust in Obama on the economy seems to be causing a major surge. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin and Minnesota move back to solid Obama when they are polled since they haven't been checked very recently.

Changes since 9/24:
Arkansas moved from McCain 10+ to McCain 6-10
Florida moved from McCain 2-6 to Obama < 2
Georgia moved from McCain 10+ to McCain 6-10
Michigan moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10
Missouri moved from McCain 2-6 to McCain < 2
Nevada moved from McCain < 2 to Obama < 2
New Hampshire moved from McCain < 2 to Obama < 2
New Mexico moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10
North Carolina moved from McCain < 2 to Obama < 2
Ohio moved from McCain 2-6 to Obama < 2
Oregon moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 10+
Pennsylvania moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10
Virginia moved from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-6
Washington moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 10+

Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin:
[171] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11)
[64] Obama 6-10: Iowa (7), Maine (4), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21),
[47] Obama 2-6: Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10)
[71] Obama < 2: Florida (27), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20)
[11] McCain < 2: Missouri (11)
[16] McCain 2-6: Indiana (11), West Virginia (5)
[24] McCain 6-10: Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Montana (3)
[134] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 171, McCain 134
6+: Obama 235, McCain 158
2+: Obama 282, McCain 174
Total: Obama 353, McCain 185
 
 
30 September 2008 @ 11:45 am
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/30/mccain-palin-the-next-clinton-or-reagan/

McCain: Palin the next Clinton or Reagan
From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

(CNN) – Sarah Palin may just be the next Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton — two previous governors underestimated by the national media who went on to win the White House, John McCain said Monday.

Appearing alongside Palin in an interview on CBS, McCain reiterated his confidence in the Alaska governor, even as several conservatives suggested she is unqualified for the No. 2 spot on a national ticket.

"This is not the first time that I've seen a governor being questioned by some quote, 'expert,' " McCain told CBS' Katie Couric as Palin looked on. "I remember that Ronald Reagan was a 'cowboy.' President Clinton was a governor of a very small state that had 'no experience' either. I remember how easy it was going to be for Bush I to defeat him.

"But the point is I've seen underestimation before," McCain added. "I'm very proud of the excitement that Gov. Palin has ignited with our party and around this country. It is a level of excitement and enthusiasm, frankly, that I haven't seen before. And I'd like to attribute it to me. But the fact is that she has done incredible job. And I'm so proud of the work that she's doing."

The comments come after Palin's widely panned interview with Couric last week during which the Republican VP candidate struggled through several answers on her foreign policy credentials and the proposed economic bailout. The comments instantly became fodder for late-night comedians and prompted criticism from several conservative corners that Palin appeared to be in over her head. But a counter-chorus has also emerged, as supporters have publicly urged the campaign not to keep Palin so isolated from the media and to allow her unfiltered audience interaction.

“Holding Sarah Palin to just three interviews and microscopically focusing on each interview I think has been a mistake,” former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney told MSNBC’s "Morning Joe" on Monday. “I think they'd be a lot wiser to let Sarah Palin be Sarah Palin. Let her talk to the media, let her talk to people."

But also in the interview with Couric on Monday, McCain decried "gotcha" journalism as he sought to downplay Palin's recent comments that suggested she would support crossing into Pakistan from the Afghanistan to root out terrorists.

"I understand this day and age of "gotcha" journalism, was that a pizza place?" McCain said regarding where Palin made the comments. "In a conversation with someone who you didn't hear … the question very well, you don't know the context of the conversation, grab a phrase. Gov. Palin and I agree that you don't announce that you're going to attack another country."

The comments came during Palin's visit to a cheesesteak restaurant in Philadelphia on Saturday night, when a voter asked if she supported a cross-border attack on Pakistan

"If that's what we have to do stop the terrorists from coming any further in, absolutely, we should," Palin responded, in comments that contradict McCain's long-standing position of consulting with Pakistan before carrying out attacks on terrorists within its borders.
 
 
25 September 2008 @ 10:14 am
State of the Race 9/24:

Sorry for the late post. As expected, the numbers have started to shift back towards Obama but there's still some uncertainty in that Rust Belt area that helps McCain.

Changes since 9/17:
Colorado moved from McCain < 2 to Obama 2-6
Maine moved from Obama 10+ to Obama 6-10
Nevada moved from McCain 2-6 to McCain < 2
New Hampshire moved from Obama < 2 to McCain < 2
New Mexico moved from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-6
North Carolina moved from McCain 2-6 to McCain < 2
Oregon moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10
Pennsylvania moved from Obama < 2 to Obama 2-6
Washington moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10
West Virginia moved from McCain 6-10 to McCain 2-6

Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin:
[153] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3)
[44] Obama 6-10: Iowa (7), Maine (4), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11)
[72] Obama 2-6: Colorado (9), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10)
[13] Obama < 2: Virginia (13)
[24] McCain < 2: Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15)
[74] McCain 2-6: Florida (27), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Ohio (20), West Virginia (5)
[3] McCain 6-10: Montana (3)
[155] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 153, McCain 155
6+: Obama 197, McCain 158
2+: Obama 269, McCain 232
Total: Obama 282, McCain 256
 
 
18 September 2008 @ 03:52 pm
...call your opponent a traitor.

Congrats Steve Schmidt, you've joined the list of people openly calling Barack Obama a traitor. Bonus points because it's about the economy and not foreign policy.

"I think as the American people prepare to make their choice in this election, they are likely to give consideration to the fact that the Obama campaign is cheerleading this [economic] crisis."- Steve Schmidt, McCain advisor and implementor of the "Win every 24 hour news cycle at any cost no matter how outrageous the lie" strategy.

I would LOVE to see 1 quote from any member of the Obama campaign that cheerleads the economic crisis or comes anywhere close.
 
 
17 September 2008 @ 06:09 pm
State of the Race 9/17:

It looks like Obama has turned the corner and is moving back into a small lead so things should continue to shift. Most likely, the state polling data is a little behind as it's done less frequently than national polling. I would expect the race will return to where it was before the conventions as we head into the debates. As of this week's update though, there are a lot of changes, mostly toward McCain based on his recent bump.

Changes since 9/10:
Colorado moved from Obama < 2 to McCain < 2
Georgia moved from McCain 6-10 to McCain 10+
Iowa moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-10
Missouri moved from McCain 6-10 to McCain 2-6
Nevada moved from McCain < 2 to McCain 2-6
New Mexico moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama < 2
North Dakota moved from McCain 6-10 to McCain 10+
Ohio moved from McCain < 2 to McCain 2-6
Oregon moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 2-6
Pennsylvania moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama < 2
South Dakota moved from McCain 6-10 to McCain 10+
Virginia moved from McCain 2-6 to Obama < 2
Washington moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 2-6

Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin:
[157] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3)
[22] Obama 6-10: Iowa (7), New Jersey (15)
[55] Obama 2-6: Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)
[43] Obama < 2: New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21), Virginia (13)
[9] McCain < 2: Colorado (9)
[89] McCain 2-6: Florida (27), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20)
[8] McCain 6-10: Montana (3), West Virginia (5)
[155] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 157, McCain 155
6+: Obama 179, McCain 163
2+: Obama 234, McCain 252
Total: Obama 277, McCain 261
 
 
17 September 2008 @ 02:10 pm
From Time's the Page...

The Alaska Governor tells Fox News’ Hannity in an interview that the Democrats launched are unfairly targeting her running mate for saying the “fundamentals of our economy are strong.”
“It was an unfair attack on the verbiage that Senator McCain chose to use…He means our workforce. He means the ingenuity of the American people and of course that is strong and that is the foundation of our economy.”


Leave it to McCain/Palin to make a stupid statement and back it up with an even worse explanation.

Nobody with even the slightest bit of objectivity is going to buy their retroactive pandering bullshit.

They could've at least given a better attempt than "I meant our workers."
 
 
12 September 2008 @ 07:04 pm
The Chicken Littles of the Democratic party can take solace in at least one fact, a number of pollsters may be underestimating Obama's support by using a poor likely voter model. Some polls are done purely among registered voters while others incorporate some sort of model to determine which poll respondents are "likely voters" and report that data.

Recent USA Today/Gallup polls have been particularly guilty of this as McCain's numbers have gone up 6 and 7 % among likely voters compared to registered voters which is ridiculous given the small size of the sample. It means those deemed registered but unlikely to vote heavily favor Obama. If their models are wrong, that's a lot of support Obama has that isn't showing up.

For example, Marist released a poll for New Jersey a few hours ago. The result was reported as Obama 48, McCain 45. This is a bad result for Obama who has mostly led by high single digits in New Jersey. However, among registered voters, Obama leads 47-40. Looking at the data, it means the following.

Registered Voters (805 respondents): Obama 47 (378 respondents) to McCain 40 (322 respondents)
Likely Voters (584 voters): Obama 48 (280 respondents) to McCain 45 (263 respondents)

Registered BUT Deemed Unlikely Voters: Obama 44 (98 respondents) to McCain 27 (59 respondents)

That's a 17 point lead among those who have been tossed from the sample. Given Obama's great organizing skill as shown in the Democratic primaries, there's at least a decent chance these likely voter models are underestimating his support and could lead to a surprising boost on election day. I would advise examining poll results for any ridiculous looking disparities between registered and likely voters. Anything higher than 3 or 4 points probably means they're using a likely voter model that is discriminating against Obama too much.
 
 
12 September 2008 @ 06:22 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zAbeu3v3Wc

Barack Obama is tired of the bullshit. Is America?
 
 
12 September 2008 @ 09:09 am
From AP:

"John McCain's campaign keeps telling voters that Sarah Palin opposed a federally funded Bridge to Nowhere that, in fact, she originally supported. It accuses Democrat Barack Obama of calling Palin a pig, which did not happen.

Even in a political culture accustomed to truth-stretching, McCain's skirting of facts has stood out this week. It has infuriated and flustered Barack Obama's campaign, and campaign pros are watching to see how much voters disregard news reports noting factual holes in the claims."

Will America allow itself to be fooled for the 3rd consecutive election? 8 weeks to go, time will tell.
 
 
11 September 2008 @ 06:19 pm
What the hell is wrong with John McCain? Every day he gets more and more ridiculous. First he makes the outrageous claim about her energy credentials and then joins the list of absolute morons who think Alaska's proximity to Russia is foreign policy experience.

"Asked what specific national security credentials Palin had, McCain cited her experience dealing with energy issues and went so far as to say she was the country's foremost expert in the field.

'She knows more about energy than probably anyone else in the United States of America,' McCain said.

McCain also pointed out that Palin governed a state that neighbors Russia."


Between this and his willingness to let his campaign sanctimoniously react to that BS lipstick on a pig story, this man has become a total disgrace. I sincerely hope that if he wins, he brings back at least a modicum of integrity because his campaign is currently sorely lacking it.
 
 
10 September 2008 @ 05:24 pm
State of the Race 9/10:

Given the volatility due to the VP picks and conventions, state polling may not be entirely accurate at this point, but for the purpose of this exercise, I'm going to take it into account as if it's generally legitimate. Having said that, don't be surprised if McCain looks good now and it recedes in the near future as his convention bump recedes. Also keep in mind that some states might be where they are simply because there is insufficient recent data.

Changes since 8/27:
Alaska moved from McCain 6-10 to McCain 10+
Montana moved from McCain <2 to McCain 6-10
North Dakota moved from McCain 2-6 to McCain 6-10
South Dakota moved from McCain 2-6 to McCain 6-10
Virginia moved from McCain <2 to McCain 2-6
Washington moved from Obama 10+ to Obama 6-10

Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin:
[157] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3)
[33] Obama 6-10: New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11)
[70] Obama 2-6: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10)
[13] Obama < 2: Colorado (9), New Hampshire 4)
[25] McCain < 2: Nevada (5), Ohio (20)
[66] McCain 2-6: Florida (27), Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13)
[82] McCain 6-10: Georgia (15), Missouri (11), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), West Virginia (5)
[92] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 157, McCain 92
6+: Obama 190, McCain 174
2+: Obama 260, McCain 240
Total: Obama 273, McCain 265
 
 
05 September 2008 @ 09:14 pm
Rudy Giuliani on Barack Obama...

"He's never run a city, never run a state, never run a business. He's never had to lead people in crisis."

Rudy Giuliani on John McCain...

"He has never run city, never run a state, never run a government. He has never been responsible as a mayor for the safety and security of millions of people"

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=3851631&page=3

That executive experience argument proved to be awesome in the primaries so I guess he's doubling down on it.

Credit: Daily Kos
 
 
04 September 2008 @ 10:27 am
So last night, Mike Huckabee gave us this huge non-sequitur that he's tired of hearing about Sarah Palin's lack of experience and that Sarah Palin got more votes running for Mayor of Wasilla than Joe Biden did running for President. As if that wasn't irrelevant enough, it's also not even true...

"FACT CHECK: BIDEN, ALMOST 80,000 VOTES
Posted: Wednesday, September 03, 2008 9:51 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Biden, Huckabee, Republican convention

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
ST. PAUL, Minn. -- Mike Huckabee made the claim that Palin got more votes running for mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, than Joe Biden got running for president of the United States.

For the record, Joe Biden got 79,754 total votes in the Democratic primaries.

As of the 2000 census, the population of Wasilla was 5,469. It has been reported at currently more than 9,000.

That would mean, conservatively, the entire town of Wasilla would have had to have had a 100% turnout for nine years at 9,000 to top Biden's primary numbers."


I guess by Mike Huckabee's standards, Barack Obama has TONS of experience because he got 18 million votes in the Democratic primary. Congrats Huckster, you've joined Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani on the complete disregard for the truth list.

For the record, I've been generally ignoring the Republican Convention because listening to Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney should be added to the list of things that are considered torture.
 
 
02 September 2008 @ 06:21 pm
There's no changes in the State of the Race this week. However, Obama has had a nice surge in national numbers this week so presumably states are moving but there is no actual state polling data to support making any moves. It really doesn't matter because this could just be a temporary bump in which case the numbers would fall back down anyway. In a few weeks, after things calm down, that'll be a good baseline number to see where the race stands heading into the debates which will potentially cause a major shift again heading into the election. I can only guess that the debates will help Obama but you never know. If George W Bush, Killer of the Spoken Word, can win an election after 3 debates 2 consecutive times, anyone can.

McCain came out with his pick of Sarah Palin and frankly it was an astoundingly pathetic pick. It really invalidated the last 6 months of the campaign as he had gone and gone about Obama isn't ready. So who does he pick? Someone who, at best, is equally experienced as Obama. It shows a real cynicism and lack of priorities to pick someone who appears purely aimed at helping him win over right wingers and disaffected Clinton women. I don't see how he could possibly defend her as a smart choice over someone like Lindsey Graham who fulfills all of the somewhat nonsensical guidelines that had been put down prior to the pick.

People are trying to pick apart Sarah Palin and debate whether she's actually more experienced than Obama but the bottom line is that John McCain was insanely hypocritical in making the pick and it shows the kind of shoot from the hip decision making policy he'd have as Commander in Chief. It's not unlike his other recent blunders like demanding we kick Russia out of the G8 or making jokes about Iran. Snap judgments are not the kind needed after 8 years of a president who goes with his gut over rational decision making.

The Palin pick was so horrendous that it's led to recent defenses of her including that she has foreign policy experience because Alaska is next to Russia (Credit: Cindy McCain and FOX News' Steve Doocy), that it's okay that she has no experience because she's going to learn under a master (Credit: McCain Advisor, Rick Davis), that she has more experience than both Barack Obama and Joe Biden because she has executive experience (Credit: Minnesota Rep Bachman), and that she actually has 16 years of experience because that's when her political career started (Credit: John McCain).

Let's examine those brain teasers.
1. Alaska is next to Russia.- Need I say more?
2. Learn under the master- Did they really just the vice presidency is an internship? Who was the last successful intern vice president? Quayle? Agnew? They worked out well.
3. Executive experience- So if the only experience that counts is executive experience, then guess who has no experience at all? John McCain.
4. 16 years of experience- Wow, 16 years is a long time. What job did she enter 16 years ago? Wasilla, Alaska City Council. She did that for 4 years before making the big step up to mayor of Wasilla. She had approximately 5,000 constituents, about the size of a poorly attended Barack Obama rally. That was another 6 years. The next 4 years weren't even spent in elected office and finally she's in her 2nd year as Governor of Alaska. So of those 16 years, she has almost 2 in a position that has as many constituents as 25% of the city of Chicago.

But surely this woman has accomplishments, right? John McCain says she's a proven reformer, an up and coming star in his image you might say.

She opposed the Bridge to Nowhere project that wasted hundreds of millions of dollars. Actually, she staunchly supported it. Then later she finally backed down from that but kept the money anyway.

She opposes pork like John McCain. Actually, as mayor and governor, she's helped bring millions of dollars in pork to Alaska.

She cuts taxes. Okay, actually she raised taxes and raised government spending.

She's ethical. Well, actually she has an ongoing investigation against her for possibly abusing her power to fire someone for personal reasons. BUT BUT she hasn't been convicted so she's still ethical!

Anything else? Nope, but she's an executive, and that's all that matters.

What's the real reason Republicans support her? She checks all their boxes. Just like George W Bush, it's not about how smart you are, or if you're honorable, or if you're competent, just please check their boxes. What do I mean? Pro-Christian religion, pro-gun, pro-life, pro-saying you'll cut taxes even if you won't, pro-Scaliaesque Supreme Court justices, and the new one...pro-drilling. You could kill a puppy on live TV and they'd still vote for you if you check their boxes and she does it, so she's got the seal of approval.



 
 
27 August 2008 @ 12:28 pm
State of the Race 8/27:

Changes since 8/20:
Missouri moves from McCain 2-6 to McCain 6-10
New Hampshire moves from Obama 2-6 to Tossup
Pennsylvania moves from Obama 6-10 to Obama 2-6

Obama vs McCain 8/27:
[168] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11)
[32] Obama 6-10: New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Wisconsin (10)
[60] Obama 2-6: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21)
[54] Tossup (Lead < 2): Colorado (9), Montana (3), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Virginia (13)
[59] McCain 2-6: Florida (27), Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3)
[76] McCain 6-10: Alaska (3), Georgia (15), Missouri (11), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), West Virginia (5)
[89] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 168, McCain 89, Tossup 281
6+: Obama 200, McCain 165, Tossup 173
2+: Obama 260, McCain 224, Tossup 54
 
 
19 August 2008 @ 08:28 pm
State of the Race 8/20:

Things are not going well for Obama lately. I guess we'll see if the VP announcements and conventions stop the bleeding. For the first time in a while, Obama does not reach 270 without tossups.

Changes since 8/6:
Colorado moved from Obama 2-6 to Tossup
Iowa moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 2-6
Minnesota moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 2-6

Obama vs McCain 8/20:
[168] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11)
[53] Obama 6-10: New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10)
[43] Obama 2-6: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4)
[50] Tossup (Lead < 2): Colorado (9), Montana (3), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13)
[70] McCain 2-6: Florida (27), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3)
[65] McCain 6-10: Alaska (3), Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), West Virginia (5)
[89] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 168, McCain 89, Tossup 281
6+: Obama 221, McCain 154, Tossup 163
2+: Obama 264, McCain 224, Tossup 50
 
 
12 August 2008 @ 10:01 pm

Busy day tomorrow so I'll just post now that there are no changes in the State of the Race this week. The only state which approached a change is Iowa but for now I'm leaving it just barely in the Obama 6-10 column. Among states which are considered +2 for one candidate or the other, the race remains Obama 273, McCain 224, Tossup 41.

 
 
11 August 2008 @ 01:50 pm
Taking another look at the VP list, though not much has changed. Interestingly, those who appear to want the job generally seem to be less worthy of being picked than many of those who don't. Only a few in the top 10 seem open to being chosen, though it's possible others are just playing it safe and would accept if asked. As for the Republicans, I'm sticking with Romney. The only way McCain wins, barring a huge Obama collapse, is to play the electoral map well and he needs to at least take the shot with Romney for New Hampshire, Michigan, and the Mountain West.

10. Wes Clark (General, Arkansas)- He's a tough one. There is of course the military background and lack of Washington stain which is a good combination. However, there's also his uninspiring 2004 campaign and the comment about McCain that got blown out of proportion last month. It could work but I'm not sold either way.
9. Sherrod Brown (Current Senator, Ohio)- He opposed the war as a Congressman and has the right home state but his protectionist leanings may paint the Democratic ticket as too anti-trade. I'm not really sure what the country's mood on NAFTA is at this point. He also seems to be unwilling to take the position.
8. Jack Reed (Current Senator, Rhode Island)- One of those guys where you wonder if it'd be a good idea given he looks like a blatant "Look I got my own Dick Cheney" but who knows. He doesn't seem to want the job but he and Obama do seem to get along well.
7. Brian Schweitzer (Current Governor, Montana)- He's cruising to re-election and probably wouldn't take the job but he's a good governor and has the kind of folksy John Edwards charm without all the baggage. Of course, they'd try to tag him like Obama as inexperienced and lacking foreign policy credentials but frankly it's either going to be that or "how is he an agent of change?" anyway. McCain's campaign surely has their dual press releases ready to attack whoever the pick is as a bad one.
6. Russ Feingold (Current Senator, Wisconsin)- I don't think he wants the job and has had a few too many kind words to say about McCain lately but I think he's a good Senator who has an independent streak that overcomes partisanship. He probably wouldn't play as well electorally but I think he's qualified.
5. Phil Bredesen (Current Governor, Tennessee)- I haven't mentioned him much before but there would be some value in picking a popular Southern governor. If Mark Warner won't do it, Bredesen appears to be the best choice among the rest of the Southern states. He has a more impressive record than Tim Kaine though obviously in a less competitive state. He's been governor for 5 1/2 years and founded HealthAmerica Corp, a successful company. In the mold of Mike Bloomberg, he doesn't accept a salary as governor because of his wealth accrued in business which is a nice talking point for his character. His "openness and accountability" governing style would play well with Obama's message. Of course, the negative is no foreign policy experience but nobody has it all.
4. Evan Bayh (Former Governor/Current Senator, Indiana)- He's the safe pick of the bunch in terms of rocking the boat but a lot of liberals dislike him and perhaps there's a reason why he's always considered for VP but never picked.
3. Joe Biden (Current Senator, Delaware)- Has generally had his gaffes and rambling under control and offers a solid voice on foreign policy. He's at the top of my list of people who appear to have a realistic chance of being picked.
2. Ted Strickland (Former Congressman/Current Governor, Ohio)- He has never showed a hint of interest in the job but given his opposition to the war, swing state home, and current position outside Washington, he'd be a good choice. One negative is that I believe his approval in Ohio is not exactly high at the moment.
1. Mark Warner (Former Governor, Virginia)- It appears he's still unwilling to be the pick and there have been no rumblings about Obama currently considering him but I still think he's the easy #1 choice. Obviously his perceived flaw will be lack of foreign policy experience but it's hard to argue with a very popular governor with a good record in business and on the economy.
 
 
08 August 2008 @ 11:41 am

First, an update on my Obama/Reagan video; it's now over 45,000 views since Sunday.

Second, I have a new video posted yesterday that's around 8000.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7-LuJtOs1U

It was also posted by Andrew Sullivan...

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/taking-back-t-3.html

Third, Happy Anniversary to John McCain. Today marks 4 months since he last cast a vote in the US Senate. Given the current recess, I assume he's going to push that to at least 5. You're doing a heck of a job, Johnny.

 
 
06 August 2008 @ 05:23 pm
 State of the Race 8/6:

Changes since 7/23:
Alaska moved from McCain 2-6 to McCain 6-10
Arizona moved from McCain 6-10 to McCain 10+
Delaware moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 10+
Florida moved from Tossup to McCain 2-6
Michigan moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 2-6
Minnesota moved from Obama 10+ to Obama 6-10
Montana moved from McCain 2-6 to Tossup

Obama vs McCain 8/6:
[168] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11)
[70] Obama 6-10: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10)
[35] Obama 2-6: Colorado (9), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4)
[41] Tossup (Lead < 2): Montana (3), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13)
[70] McCain 2-6: Florida (27), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3)
[65] McCain 6-10: Alaska (3), Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), West Virginia (5)
[89] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 168, McCain 89, Tossup 281
6+: Obama 238, McCain 154, Tossup 146

2+: Obama 273, McCain 224, Tossup 41
 
 
03 August 2008 @ 05:10 pm

My response to John McCain's celebrity ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfKXVDbvkoQ

 
 
30 July 2008 @ 05:45 pm
No full update this week due to lack of polls and state movement. The only state that moved was Michigan from Obama 6-10 to Obama 2-6.
 
 
29 July 2008 @ 09:12 pm
 http://www.vawatchdog.org/08/nf08/nfJAN08/nf012108-1.htm

A nice comparison...

"
2006 Senator Obama supported the interests of the Disabled American Veterans 80 percent in 2006.

2006 In 2006 Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Senator Obama a grade of B+.

2006 Senator Obama sponsored or co-sponsored 12 percent of the legislation favored by the The Retired Enlisted Association in 2006.

2005 Senator Obama supported the interests of the Disabled American Veterans 92 percent in 2005."

"2006 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Disabled American Veterans 20 percent in 2006.

2006 In 2006 Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Senator McCain a grade of D.

2006 Senator McCain sponsored or co-sponsored 18 percent of the legislation favored by the The Retired Enlisted Association in 2006.

2005 Senator McCain supported the interests of the Disabled American Veterans 25 percent in 2005."
 
 
28 July 2008 @ 08:07 pm

"Suppose you had to choose between two Presidential candidates, one of whom had spent 20 years in Congress plus had considerable other relevant experience and the other of whom had about half a dozen years in the Illinois state legislature and 2 years in Congress. Which one do you think would make a better President? If you chose #1, congratulations, you picked James Buchanan over Abraham Lincoln. Your pick disagrees with that of most historians, who see Lincoln as the greatest President ever and Buchanan as the second worst ever, better only than Warren "Teapot Dome" Harding. Both served in what was probably the most difficult period in American history, where slavery and secession tore the nation asunder.

Before becoming President, Buchanan had served 6 years in the Pennsylvania state legislature, 10 years in the U.S. House of Representatives, 4 years as ambassador to Russia, 10 years in the Senate, 4 years as Secretary of State, and 4 years as Ambassador to England. Talk about experience, Buchanan did just about everything except serve on the Supreme Court, a job he was offered by President Polk and refused. Yet by any measure, he wasn't up to the job as President. In contrast, Abraham Lincoln served 8 years in the Illinois legislature and one term in the U.S. House (1847-1849), a decade before becoming President. The rest of the time he was a lawyer in private practice, a bit thin one might say."

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/experience.html

Obviously this is not hard evidence but it does show how thinking purely about experience without truly evaluating candidates on talent and judgment is a bad idea.

 
 
23 July 2008 @ 05:51 pm

State of the Race 7/23:

-Changed 6-12 and 12+ to 6-10 and 10+
-Also shifted all leads of < 2 to a single tossup category

Changes since 7/16:
Delaware moved from Obama 10+ to Obama 6-10
Florida moved from McCain 2-6 to Tossup
New Hampshire moved from Obama 6-10 to Obama 2-6
Ohio moved from Obama 2-6 to Tossup

Obama vs McCain 7/23:
[175] Obama 10+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Minnesota (10), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11)
[80] Obama 6-10: Delaware (3), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10)
[18] Obama 2-6: Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4)
[65] Tossup (Lead < 2): Florida (27), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13)
[49] McCain 2-6: Alaska (3), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Montana (3), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3)
[72] McCain 6-10: Arizona (10), Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), West Virginia (5)
[79] McCain 10+: Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

10+: Obama 175, McCain 79, Tossup 284
6+: Obama 255, McCain 151, Tossup 132

2+: Obama 273, McCain 200, Tossup 65

 
 
16 July 2008 @ 06:00 pm
State of the Race 7/16:

Changes since 7/9:
Kansas moved from McCain 6-12 to McCain 12+
Louisiana moved from McCain 6-12 to McCain 12+
Michigan moved from Obama 2-6 to Obama 6-12
Minnesota moved from Obama 6-12 to Obama 12+
South Dakota moved from McCain 6-12 to McCain 2-6

Obama vs McCain 7/16:
[178] Obama 12+: California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Minnesota (10), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11)
[81] Obama 6-12: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10)
[34] Obama 2-6: Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20)
[13] Obama < 2: Virginia (13)
[5] McCain < 2: Nevada (5)
[76] McCain 2-6: Alaska (3), Florida (27), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Montana (3), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3)
[84] McCain 6-12: Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Mississippi (6), South Carolina (8), Texas (34), West Virginia (5)
[67] McCain 12+: Alabama (9), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

12+: Obama 178, McCain 67
6+: Obama 259, McCain 151
2+: Obama 293, McCain 227
Total: Obama 306,
McCain 232

Leads:
DC- Obama +60
Vermont- Obama +23
Rhode Island- Obama +22
Hawaii- Obama +20
California- Obama +18
New York- Obama +18
Connecticut- Obama +18
Massachusetts- Obama +18
Illinois- Obama +17
Maryland- Obama +15
Maine- Obama +15
Minnesota- Obama +13
Washington- Obama +12.5
Delaware- Obama +12.5
--------------------------------------
Wisconsin- Obama +8.5
New Jersey- Obama +8
Oregon- Obama +8
New Hampshire- Obama +8
Iowa- Obama +7
Pennsylvania- Obama +7
Michigan- Obama +6.5
--------------------------------------
New Mexico- Obama +4.5
Colorado- Obama +3.5 (Tipping point state)
Ohio- Obama +3
-------------------------------------
Virginia- Obama +1
**************************
Nevada- McCain +1.5
-------------------------------------
Montana- McCain +3
Indiana- McCain +3
Florida- McCain +3
Missouri- McCain +3
North Carolina- McCain +3
North Dakota- McCain +4
Alaska- McCain +5
South Dakota- McCain +5
-------------------------------------
Georgia- McCain +8
West Virginia- McCain +8
South Carolina- McCain +8
Texas- McCain +9
Arizona- McCain +9
Mississippi- McCain +10
Arkansas- McCain +11
-------------------------------------
Nebraska- McCain +13
Louisiana- McCain +14
Kansas- McCain +15
Kentucky- McCain +15
Idaho- McCain +15
Tennessee- McCain +15
Alabama- McCain +16
Wyoming- McCain +16
Oklahoma- McCain +20
Utah- McCain +23
 
 
14 July 2008 @ 09:12 am
No flip-flops, no move to the center, no changes...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/14/opinion/14obama.html?hp

"My Plan for Iraq (NY Times Op-Ed)

CHICAGO — The call by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki for a timetable for the removal of American troops from Iraq presents an enormous opportunity. We should seize this moment to begin the phased redeployment of combat troops that I have long advocated, and that is needed for long-term success in Iraq and the security interests of the United States.

The differences on Iraq in this campaign are deep. Unlike Senator John McCain, I opposed the war in Iraq before it began, and would end it as president. I believed it was a grave mistake to allow ourselves to be distracted from the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban by invading a country that posed no imminent threat and had nothing to do with the 9/11 attacks. Since then, more than 4,000 Americans have died and we have spent nearly $1 trillion. Our military is overstretched. Nearly every threat we face — from Afghanistan to Al Qaeda to Iran — has grown.

In the 18 months since President Bush announced the surge, our troops have performed heroically in bringing down the level of violence. New tactics have protected the Iraqi population, and the Sunni tribes have rejected Al Qaeda — greatly weakening its effectiveness.

But the same factors that led me to oppose the surge still hold true. The strain on our military has grown, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated and we’ve spent nearly $200 billion more in Iraq than we had budgeted. Iraq’s leaders have failed to invest tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues in rebuilding their own country, and they have not reached the political accommodation that was the stated purpose of the surge.

The good news is that Iraq’s leaders want to take responsibility for their country by negotiating a timetable for the removal of American troops. Meanwhile, Lt. Gen. James Dubik, the American officer in charge of training Iraq’s security forces, estimates that the Iraqi Army and police will be ready to assume responsibility for security in 2009.

Only by redeploying our troops can we press the Iraqis to reach comprehensive political accommodation and achieve a successful transition to Iraqis’ taking responsibility for the security and stability of their country. Instead of seizing the moment and encouraging Iraqis to step up, the Bush administration and Senator McCain are refusing to embrace this transition — despite their previous commitments to respect the will of Iraq’s sovereign government. They call any timetable for the removal of American troops “surrender,” even though we would be turning Iraq over to a sovereign Iraqi government.

But this is not a strategy for success — it is a strategy for staying that runs contrary to the will of the Iraqi people, the American people and the security interests of the United States. That is why, on my first day in office, I would give the military a new mission: ending this war.

As I’ve said many times, we must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months. That would be the summer of 2010 — two years from now, and more than seven years after the war began. After this redeployment, a residual force in Iraq would perform limited missions: going after any remnants of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, protecting American service members and, so long as the Iraqis make political progress, training Iraqi security forces. That would not be a precipitous withdrawal.

In carrying out this strategy, we would inevitably need to make tactical adjustments. As I have often said, I would consult with commanders on the ground and the Iraqi government to ensure that our troops were redeployed safely, and our interests protected. We would move them from secure areas first and volatile areas later. We would pursue a diplomatic offensive with every nation in the region on behalf of Iraq’s stability, and commit $2 billion to a new international effort to support Iraq’s refugees.

Ending the war is essential to meeting our broader strategic goals, starting in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the Taliban is resurgent and Al Qaeda has a safe haven. Iraq is not the central front in the war on terrorism, and it never has been. As Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently pointed out, we won’t have sufficient resources to finish the job in Afghanistan until we reduce our commitment to Iraq.

As president, I would pursue a new strategy, and begin by providing at least two additional combat brigades to support our effort in Afghanistan. We need more troops, more helicopters, better intelligence-gathering and more nonmilitary assistance to accomplish the mission there. I would not hold our military, our resources and our foreign policy hostage to a misguided desire to maintain permanent bases in Iraq.

In this campaign, there are honest differences over Iraq, and we should discuss them with the thoroughness they deserve. Unlike Senator McCain, I would make it absolutely clear that we seek no presence in Iraq similar to our permanent bases in South Korea, and would redeploy our troops out of Iraq and focus on the broader security challenges that we face. But for far too long, those responsible for the greatest strategic blunder in the recent history of American foreign policy have ignored useful debate in favor of making false charges about flip-flops and surrender.

It’s not going to work this time. It’s time to end this war."

 
 
13 July 2008 @ 07:29 pm

When Wes Clark made his comment about John McCain, it was treated by Republicans and the McCain campaign as if it was the worst political attack of the century. The McCain campaign issued 16 press releases in 1 day to display their outrage over Clark's comments. It was decided that Wes Clark, who supported Hillary Clinton until 3 weeks prior and had no role on the Obama campaign, was part of an orchestrated effort to devalue John McCain's military record. That's some pretty serious surrogate bashing. They probably should've known the fake outrage bonanza would come back to bite them in the ass.

Now, Phil Gramm made his "nation of whiners" comments and suddenly surrogates are insignificant, even when that surrogate happens to be one of the, if not the biggest, economic advisors on the campaign and a campaign co-chair and the man who John McCain is good friends with and endorsed in the 1996 election primary. But all of that doesn't matter according to the McCain campaign. McCain came out later in the day and said that he speaks for himself, not his surrogates. Never mind the fact that McCain sends surrogates out to speak for him all the time just like all candidates do. Of course, that bullshit wasn't enough. Today, Carly Fiorina went even further in dismissing the role of surrogates, completely reversing everything the McCain campaign had said about Wes Clark and even going against exactly what Fiorina said previously.

From the AP: "'Outside of Washington, where this is an interesting parlor game, I think most Americans are not really focused on what a bunch of surrogates are saying,' Fiorina said on 'Meet the Press' on NBC. 'They're focused on what the candidates are saying.'

Last March, Fiorina sounded more upbeat about people representing the campaign. While discussing her new role with McCain, she told the Web site Pajamas Media, 'I think they're going to see us expand our surrogate program in some interesting ways.'"

So is the McCain campaign going to apologize for flip-flopping on the importance of surrogate statements, especially surrogates who aren't even members of the campaign? Don't hold your breath. When Obama said we've entered silly season, someone should've asked him if silly season ever ends. It still amazes me that flip flops are being made an issue in this campaign given that neither side has any ground to stand on on the issue. Somehow McCain is getting the upper hand because his litany of changes are not being covered as the media's present narrative is "Obama moving to the center."

 
 
22 June 2008 @ 08:34 pm
So David Brooks didn't exactly succeed at attacking Obama when he said Obama needs to get out and visit Applebees' salad bars. How was he supposed to know Applebees doesn't have a salad bar? Now Brooks is back with his latest attempt. Once again, it falls far short of intelligent commentary and more towards right wing talking points...

"June 20, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist

The Two Obamas
By David Brooks

God, Republicans are saps. They think that they’re running against some academic liberal who wouldn’t wear flag pins on his lapel, whose wife isn’t proud of America and who went to some liberationist church where the pastor damned his own country. They think they’re running against some naïve university-town dreamer, the second coming of Adlai Stevenson.

But as recent weeks have made clear, Barack Obama is the most split-personality politician in the country today. On the one hand, there is Dr. Barack, the high-minded, Niebuhr-quoting speechifier who spent this past winter thrilling the Scarlett Johansson set and feeling the fierce urgency of now. But then on the other side, there’s Fast Eddie Obama, the promise-breaking, tough-minded Chicago pol who’d throw you under the truck for votes.

This guy is the whole Chicago package: an idealistic, lakefront liberal fronting a sharp-elbowed machine operator. He’s the only politician of our lifetime who is underestimated because he’s too intelligent. He speaks so calmly and polysyllabically that people fail to appreciate the Machiavellian ambition inside.

But he’s been giving us an education, for anybody who cares to pay attention. Just try to imagine Mister Rogers playing the agent Ari in “Entourage” and it all falls into place.

Back when he was in the Illinois State Senate, Dr. Barack could have taken positions on politically uncomfortable issues. But Fast Eddie Obama voted “present” nearly 130 times. From time to time, he threw his voting power under the truck.

Dr. Barack said he could no more disown the Rev. Jeremiah Wright than disown his own grandmother. Then the political costs of Rev. Wright escalated and Fast Eddie Obama threw Wright under the truck.

Dr. Barack could have been a workhorse senator. But primary candidates don’t do tough votes, so Fast Eddie Obama threw the workhorse duties under the truck.

Dr. Barack could have changed the way presidential campaigning works. John McCain offered to have a series of extended town-hall meetings around the country. But favored candidates don’t go in for unscripted free-range conversations. Fast Eddie Obama threw the new-politics mantra under the truck.

And then on Thursday, Fast Eddie Obama had his finest hour. Barack Obama has worked on political reform more than any other issue. He aspires to be to political reform what Bono is to fighting disease in Africa. He’s spent much of his career talking about how much he believes in public financing. In January 2007, he told Larry King that the public-financing system works. In February 2007, he challenged Republicans to limit their spending and vowed to do so along with them if he were the nominee. In February 2008, he said he would aggressively pursue spending limits. He answered a Midwest Democracy Network questionnaire by reminding everyone that he has been a longtime advocate of the public-financing system.

But Thursday, at the first breath of political inconvenience, Fast Eddie Obama threw public financing under the truck. In so doing, he probably dealt a death-blow to the cause of campaign-finance reform. And the only thing that changed between Thursday and when he lauded the system is that Obama’s got more money now.

And Fast Eddie Obama didn’t just sell out the primary cause of his life. He did it with style. He did it with a video so risibly insincere that somewhere down in the shadow world, Lee Atwater is gaping and applauding. Obama blamed the (so far marginal) Republican 527s. He claimed that private donations are really public financing. He made a cut-throat political calculation seem like Mother Teresa’s final steps to sainthood.

The media and the activists won’t care (they were only interested in campaign-finance reform only when the Republicans had more money). Meanwhile, Obama’s money is forever. He’s got an army of small donors and a phalanx of big money bundlers, including, according to The Washington Post, Kenneth Griffin of the Citadel Investment Group; Kirk Wager, a Florida trial lawyer; James Crown, a director of General Dynamics; and Neil Bluhm, a hotel, office and casino developer.

I have to admit, I’m ambivalent watching all this. On the one hand, Obama did sell out the primary cause of his professional life, all for a tiny political advantage. If he’ll sell that out, what won’t he sell out? On the other hand, global affairs ain’t beanbag. If we’re going to have a president who is going to go toe to toe with the likes of Vladimir Putin, maybe it is better that he should have a ruthlessly opportunist Fast Eddie Obama lurking inside.

All I know for sure is that this guy is no liberal goo-goo. Republicans keep calling him naïve. But naïve is the last word I’d use to describe Barack Obama. He’s the most effectively political creature we’ve seen in decades. Even Bill Clinton wasn’t smart enough to succeed in politics by pretending to renounce politics."

The charges:

1. Obama voted present- He voted present about 2% of the time. This fantasy that you get away with something by voting present is nonsense. Given the heat he's taken for it, the really politically expedient thing to do would've been just to vote. You'll notice nobody has made an issue of any of the 3800+ votes that he did vote yes or no. Would you rather have someone who voted present 2% or voted incorrectly 2% (or much more) of the time? Most of the votes were probably political but as he claims, politics isn't bean bag, so why should Obama have voted for/against bills that were being used as wedge issues just to play into the opposition's game? Also, on other bills, he clearly explained that he voted present because there was a specific issue with part of the bill that he wanted rectified before approving it. This is a hell of a lot better than someone who votes for things despite problematic loopholes.

2. Jeremiah Wright- I know everyone thinks this is political expediency but I don't think it was. Obama's reaction was perfectly understandable given the slow increase in Wright's ability to be tolerated. First he was just controversial so Obama said okay not a good idea to speak at my campaign kickoff. Perfectly reasonable. Then his more outrageous statements came out and Obama said he denounces those statements but Wright has done a lot of good and he's not going to allow a few statements to wipe out 20 years of good things Wright has done. Perfectly reasonable. Then came April where Wright himself went in front of the national media and behaved like a fool and decided that he wanted to characterize himself as a nutcase so Obama said that if this guy wants to allow himself to be portrayed this way, then he longer feels the need to defend him and is cutting him off. Perfectly reasonable. Was it politically expedient? Yes, but real political expediency would have been to cut this guy off from the start and remove every figure from his life that could ever ever be construed as anything but bland All-American apple pie. I don't see anything wrong with what he did given that the "facts on the ground" continued to change so his position rationally evolved.

3. "Workhorse senator"- Workhorse in what way? Congress in its present form is a joke. People who get things passed are people with seniority. Hillary Clinton apparently worked extremely hard during her 1st term in the Senate and what accomplishments does she have to her name? Nothing but a bad vote on Iraq. Congress doesn't reward hard work and that's exactly why Obama needs to be President so he doesn't have to wait til he's 75 to pass any major legislation.

4. Town halls- Oh yes, what an olive branch John McCain offered with those town halls. That was a purely selfish offer. McCain knows full well that town halls are his best forum and he's awful on the teleprompter and can't draw large crowds. By forcing Obama onto his turf, he could bog down Obama in preparation for town halls and use his best format in an attempt to tamp down Obama's huge crowds and enthusiasm. It was nothing but a political ploy and David Brooks acts like McCain was doing out of respect for the political process. I guess Brooks also believes John McCain is seriously hurt that Obama didn't take public financing and it has nothing to do with the huge money advantage Obama has without it. If McCain cares so much about more debates between the two of them, why hasn't he accepted Obama's plan for 5 debates?

5. Public financing- I don't think anyone doubts that Obama didn't reject it for at least partially selfish reasons but McCain is certainly not innocent in this the way he's been gaming the system and frankly it's stupid to insist that Obama kneecap himself in the midst of the election. That's why we're so insistent on following the Constitution, because it's a lot easier to work under pre-established rules than make up new ones on the fly when people are forced to pick between self-interest and principle. For McCain to call this a big trust issue is nonsense. First of all, he would do it in a heartbeat if the situation were reversed and more importantly, Obama isn't hurting real people by making this reversal. McCain flip-flopping on a long term presence in Iraq is 10,000 times more important than Obama not taking public financing but which one are we talking about? I support public financing but it's setting the ethics threshold a little too high to expect Obama to voluntarily forfeit his fundraising advantage in the middle of a very important election. Given that Obama has made ethics a major part of his record, I don't think this is any indication of the same thing happening when he's president. In fact, there is a good chance he'll bring about reform so future candidates won't be put in this ethical limbo. 

 
 
25 February 2008 @ 04:01 pm
The 5 Stages of Grief:

1. Denial

"The only way I know how to do it is to believe with all my heart that I'm going to be successful. That's what I get up every day and tell myself. That's what I believe. That's what I think is going to happen. So I don't-- I don't entertain the other option..."

"Well, it will be me....No I haven't [considered the possibility it won't be me]."

2. Anger

"Shame on you, Barack Obama. It is time you ran a campaign consistent with your messages in public. That’s what I expect from you. Meet me in Ohio. Lets have a debate about your tactics and your behavior on this campaign."

"I want to make change, but I've already made change! I will continue to make change!"

3. Bargaining

"Well, I have to agree with everything Barack just said [about a potential Obama and Clinton pairing]. This has been an extraordinary campaign, and I think both of us have been overwhelmed by the response that we have engendered, the kind of enthusiasm and intensity that people feel about each of us. And so, clearly, we are both dedicated to doing the best we can to win the nomination, but there is no doubt we will have a unified Democratic Party."

4. Depression

"Well that hurts my feelings. I don't think I'm that bad."

"It's not easy. It's not easy, and I couldn't do it if I didn't passionately believe it was the right thing to do. You know, I have so many opportunities from this country just don't want to see us fall backwards. (Eyes welling up a bit) You know, this is very personal for me."

5. Acceptance

"I am honored to be on this stage with Barack Obama."

"You know, whatever happens, we're going to be fine. You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends."
 
 
01 February 2008 @ 08:46 pm

A post by Michael Scherer on Time.com's Swampland blog...

"On Thursday afternoon, political reporters across the country received a gushing email from the Republican National Committee, with a big picture of Barack Obama next to the words “Obama: Most Liberal Senator In 2007.” It was a reference to the National Journal, Washington’s big-deal political trade magazine, which released its annual bipolar rankings of the Senate. The results: Hillary Clinton was the 16th most liberal member of the Senate. Barack Obama was #1.

For those Democrats who still have nightmares from the 2004 election, the importance of this fact is unmistakable. Back then, Republicans repeatedly tarred nominee John Kerry with the fact that he had been ranked as the #1 most liberal member of Senate in 2003. Could it all be happening again? If Obama is the nominee, you can bet on it. In point of fact, both Obama and Clinton are relatively liberal members of the Senate. But “most liberal”? That sounds a bit like being the drunkest guy at a Superbowl party—not something to be proud of in a general election.

The more interesting question, though, is, Does this “most liberal” ranking actually mean anything? And the answer, once you look at the National Journal’s methodology, is not really. I say this only because I got an email from Dave Meyer, a researcher here in DC, who is one of the many usually-unnamed people who toil behind the scenes in Washington brokering in information. Here is what Meyer wrote:

I actually browsed through the scorecard National Journal used to determine the ranking. There are precisely two scored votes where Obama took the liberal position and Clinton took the conservative. The first was Joe Lieberman's S.Amdt. 30 to S.Amdt. 3 to S.1 The Amendment was "To establish a Senate Office of Public Integrity." Here's the roll call of the 27-71 vote. Joining Obama on the "liberal" side -- meaning the side in support of Joe Lieberman's amendment -- were Republicans Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe Chuck Grassley, and John McCain.

The second was Jeff Bingaman's S.Amdt. 1267 to S.Amdt.1150 to S.1348, the Immigration Reform bill. The Amendment was "To remove the requirement that Y-1 nonimmigrant visa holders leave the United States before they are able to renew their visa." Here's the roll call of the 41-57 vote (60 votes needed to pass, so it failed by 19). Joining Obama on the "liberal' side were Richard Shelby, Chuck Hagel, and Tom Coburn.

So there you have it. Obama is more liberal than Clinton because he voted with John McCain, the most likely Republican nominee, and Tom Coburn, one of the Senate's most conservative members. Ain’t political rankings a wonderful thing."

 
 
24 January 2008 @ 10:32 pm
Pretty likely things won't change again, my opinions have been pretty consistent and unchanging lately...

1. Barack Obama (D)(would almost definitely vote for/endorse)
2. John McCain (R)(would probably vote for/endorse)
3. Ron Paul (R)(would probably vote for/endorse)
4. John Edwards (D)(might vote for/endorse)
5. Hillary Clinton (D)(will almost definitely not vote for/endorse)
6. Mitt Romney (R)(will almost definitely not vote for/endorse)
7. Mike Huckabee (R)(will almost definitely not vote for/endorse)
8. Rudy Giuliani (R)(will almost definitely not vote for/endorse)
 
 
24 January 2008 @ 09:23 pm
From the NY Times Republican endorsement of John McCain:

"Why, as a New York-based paper, are we not backing Rudolph Giuliani? Why not choose the man we endorsed for re-election in 1997 after a first term in which he showed that a dirty, dangerous, supposedly ungovernable city could become clean, safe and orderly? What about the man who stood fast on Sept. 11, when others, including President Bush, went AWOL?

That man is not running for president.

The real Mr. Giuliani, whom many New Yorkers came to know and mistrust, is a narrow, obsessively secretive, vindictive man who saw no need to limit police power. Racial polarization was as much a legacy of his tenure as the rebirth of Times Square.

Mr. Giuliani’s arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking. When he claims fiscal prudence, we remember how he ran through surpluses without a thought to the inevitable downturn and bequeathed huge deficits to his successor. He fired Police Commissioner William Bratton, the architect of the drop in crime, because he couldn’t share the limelight. He later gave the job to Bernard Kerik, who has now been indicted on fraud and corruption charges.

The Rudolph Giuliani of 2008 first shamelessly turned the horror of 9/11 into a lucrative business, with a secret client list, then exploited his city’s and the country’s nightmare to promote his presidential campaign."

I particularly like the part where they say his arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking. They couldn't be any more accurate.

 
 
19 January 2008 @ 10:45 pm
Rudy Giuliani thinks he's going to run a 50 state campaign. Someone should probably let him know that his geography is as flawed as his perspective on 9/11. Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina are all states included in the 50 count.

Ron Paul vs. Rudy Giuliani

Iowa:
Paul- 10% 11,817
Giuliani- 3% 4,097

New Hampshire-
Giuliani 9% 20,395
Paul- 8% 18,303

Michigan-
Paul- 6% 54,434
Giuliani- 3% 24,706

Nevada-
Paul- 14% 6,087
Giuliani- 4% 1,910

South Carolina-
Paul- 4% 15,234
Giuliani- 2% 8,522

Total Victories-
Paul- 4
Giuliani- 1

Total Votes-
Paul- 105,875 (64%)
Giuliani- 59,630 (36%)
 
 
14 January 2008 @ 04:51 pm
 If I had to bet, I would now say the nominees will be Hillary Clinton and the winner of Michigan tomorrow, either McCain or Romney. Obama might win Nevada and South Carolina but probably not by much and Hillary will probably win Florida and get the media bump despite them having no delegates. I just don't think Obama has the time to turn the big states on Super Tuesday. Whoever wins the Republican side will probably get enough of a bump to win Nevada and South Carolina and then roll right through Florida and Super Tuesday. Of course this is all assuming there are no major gaffes or tears shed. Obviously, it would probably help Obama if Edwards would drop out and endorse him instead of continuing to strip away "Change" votes.

I'll throw out new rankings though little has changed except for Bill Richardson's exit and a drop to 3 tiers instead of 4.

1. Barack Obama (D)(small gaffe when he said his 2004 comments were to protect Kerry/Edwards)
2. John McCain (R)(media ignored his "one way ticket" joke that was probably over the line)
3. Ron Paul (R)(needs to work on debate skills to slam opponents)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Fred Thompson (R)(aided by process of elimination)
5. John Edwards (D)(please drop out and endorse Obama)
6. Hillary Clinton (D)(continues to mislead about her and Obama's record)
7. Mitt Romney (R)(killed by his terrible pander-filled campaign)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Mike Huckabee (R)(nice guy, not qualified to be President)
9. Rudy Giuliani (R)(stop telling Ron Paul his logic is flawed)
 
 
12 January 2008 @ 09:41 am
"In broken English, one woman told Clinton how she wasn't making money as a broker anymore.

"I have no income at all," she said. "So how will I survive?"

Choking up with emotion, the woman said, "In my neighborhood, there are brand-new homes, but the value is nothing. I'm glad you are here so I can tell you, because you're going to be the president, I know."

A man shouted through an opening in the wall that his wife was illegal.

"No woman is illegal," Clinton said, to cheers."


I don't know how Obama and Edwards specifically feel about this, but this is the second time that Hillary Clinton has made a ridiculous remark about illlegal immigrants and I posted about the last one too. Last time..."Clinton criticized the immigration bill proposed in the last Congress, dominated by Republicans. That legislation would have penalized those who help illegal immigrants. 'I said it would have criminalized the good Samaritan. It would have criminalized Jesus Christ,' she said."

We have laws. If you break the law, you're a criminal. All this "Well, they're all God's children" stuff is bullshit. What if 1 billion people worldwide decided they wanted to come here. This country can't handle the burden of the entire world's population while only a small percentage pay taxes to our government.

If you cross the border without permission, you're a criminal, certainly more of a criminal than someone with a minor marijuana charge who ends up in jail for their act. I'm not sure why they think this strategy will appeal to Hispanic voters. If I was a legal Hispanic immigrant, I would be pissed as hell that I did everything by the book and these other people are getting in by running across the border; perhaps they feel differently. Meanwhile, stop pandering and cut off the incentives. If you crack down on businesses and government benefits, most of them will just go home.

I hate to side with people like Tom Tancredo because frankly I think his motivations for being so opposed to illegal immigration are racist and xenophobic but generally he's right.
 
 
 
10 January 2008 @ 10:06 pm
Rudy Giuliani keeps espousing a 50 state strategy and claiming he can win states that are often ignored by Republicans. He's so sure of his 50 state plan that he's decided to skip Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina and head straight to Florida and the Super Tuesday states. Does this guy understand how logically inconsistent so many of his statements are? You can't be a 50 state candidate when you forfeit 6 of them. He could've tried and he chose not to; I would expect the same if his ridiculous strategy works and he becomes the nominee.

Also, he's decided to replace 9/11 with Ronald Reagan as his favorite Tourettes-style outburst. He must have said Ronald Reagan more than a dozen times so far in this debate.
 
 
04 January 2008 @ 03:26 pm
Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out of the race. Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel, and Duncan Hunter have been ruled unofficially dead as well so the race is basically down to 10 (though Richardson is really dead too). Since so many have been dumped, I won't include old rankings since they don't really apply. I'd say it breaks down into 4 tiers for me so I've split them up that way.

1. Barack Obama (D)
2. John McCain (R)
3. Ron Paul (R)
--------------------------------
4. Fred Thompson (R)
5. John Edwards (D)
6. Hillary Clinton (D)
--------------------------------
7. Bill Richardson (D)
8. Mitt Romney (R)
9. Mike Huckabee (R)
--------------------------------
10. Rudy Giuliani (R) 

Thankfully, Obama won Iowa and there's a decent chance Obama and McCain will win New Hampshire. Also, Rudy Giuliani seems to be running an incredibly dumb strategy but I guess we won't find out until next month.
 
 
03 January 2008 @ 10:41 am
Apparently, Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson, and Joe Biden will all be directing their vote to support Barack Obama if they do not reach the 15% threshold in the caucus tonight. If those campaigns actually succeed in doing this, I would imagine that Obama might actually win in a landslide. That's about 15-20% of votes that would be heading straight to Obama who is already in a virtual tie with Clinton and Edwards. Unfortunately for Obama, I don't think they'll be able to convince everyone to listen to their 1st choices so it's good news, but probably not great news for him.

Also, ironically, John McCain may be the big story coming out of Iowa despite the fact that he has virtually no chance to win. If Romney and Huckabee are bunched up at 1st and 2nd and McCain finishes a strong 3rd, there's a good chance that he'll be the headline on the Republican side for beating expectations. Realistically, the best reasonable situation for McCain would probably be something like Huckabee 28, Romney 26, McCain 17 where Huckabee doesn't win big, Romney loses, and he does pretty well. Given his surge in national polls and New Hampshire polls, that could be enough to push him over the top.
 
 
01 January 2008 @ 10:58 am
So on Meet the Press on Sunday, Mike Huckabee argued that all people are created equal which is why we need to ban all abortions. However, he also argued, as Mitt Romney did previously, that neither the doctor nor the mother should be put in jail for performing/having the abortion. If abortion is a doctor and mother conspiring to commit pre-meditated murder, then under the doctrine that all people are created equal, shouldn't they be thrown in jail for the rest of their lives? If the doctor and mother instead conspired to kill the woman's husband, would they just get slaps on the wrist? Either they're equal or they're not, you can't have it both ways. Okay, you can, but only because the American people are going to let them get away with it.
 
 
20 December 2007 @ 12:20 pm

http://www.newsweek.com/id/81082/page/1

New ARG Polls:

Iowa- Huckabee 28, McCain 20, Romney 17, Giulaini 13
New Hampshire- Romney 26, McCain 26, Giuliani 16, Huckabee 11

Maybe those bigtime endorsements are actually helping him. Of course, it's also just 1 poll but it seems pretty odd that he shot up in 2 states in the same poll right after receiving the endorsements from the Des Moines Register and Boston Globe among other papers. It might have gotten to the point where Republicans are so confused about who they're going to nominate out of the 5 frontrunners that little things like endorsements actually make a difference because so few are sure of their choice. It's starting to look like McCain could win by process of elimination.

 
 
19 December 2007 @ 12:21 pm
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071219/OPINION01/712190340/1166/OPINION01

An article in the Des Moines Register endorsing Obama even though the paper officially endorsed Clinton. I just thought it was pretty good. It leaves out some things but pretty much aligns with my thoughts on the Democratic race. 
 
 
 
 

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