Just 1 day until the election and it appears that Obama has a stranglehold on victory. I would say that Obama has a 99% chance to win assuming the polls aren't horrendously wrong. The national polls have collapsed to a 5-9 point race and if those are accurate, the state polls are largely irrelevant. Anything over a 2-3 point national popular vote win is essentially a guaranteed victory based on the way things inevitably shake out in the electoral college. There is still a plausible scenario for a McCain victory but it's going to a clear surge in a few states that polls don't currently project.
The media is going to be all over what states and counties to watch so I won't bother laying that out. One non-presidential issue that is going to be very interesting is if the Democrats get to 60 in the Senate. Right now they look to have a decent chance to get to 59. The 60th seat, if they get it, will likely come from Georgia. However, there's an interesting quirk in Georgia law. If no candidate reaches 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff election on December 2nd. That means if the Democrats get to 59 (as they probably will if Al Franken wins in Minnesota), then the Chambliss/Martin race will become incredibly important and, if neither candidate reaches 50% tomorrow, will likely become the most insane month of a senate election ever. Both parties will dump millions into it and things will get extremely nasty. Just something to pay attention to tomorrow, in order for this scenario to occur, Dems need to win in VA, CO, AK, NM, NH, OR, NC, and MN, many of which are likely victories.
As you can see, this election is probably all about those leaning states. Obama basically just needs to come up with 27 electoral votes (26 to tie) between Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada to win the election, all of which have a clear lean in his direction at this point. So it's either win PA and 1 other or sweep Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada to all but guarantee victory.
On to the states...
Obama Locks: (217 electoral votes)
California (55), Connecticut (7), DC (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)
Obama Almost Locks: (26 electoral votes)
Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5)
Obama Leaning: (48 electoral votes)
Colorado (9)- Projected lead of 4-8 points
Nevada (5)- Projected lead of 4-8 points
Pennsylvania (21)- Projected lead of 4-8 points
Virginia (13)- Projected lead of 3-7 points
Obama Toss-ups: (47 electoral votes)
Florida (27)- Projected lead of (-1)-3 points
Ohio (20)- Projected lead of (-2)-4 points***
McCain Toss-ups: (43 electoral votes)
Indiana (11)- Projected lead of (-1)-2 points
Missouri (11)-Projected lead of (-1)-1 point
Montana (3)- Projected lead of (-1)-4 points
North Carolina (15)- Projected lead of (-2)-2 points
North Dakota (3)- Projected lead of (-2)-2 points
McCain Leaning: (27 electoral votes)
Arizona (10)- Projected lead of 3-7 points
Georgia (15)- Projected lead of 3-7 points
Nebraska District 1 and 2* (2)- Projected lead of 3-7 points
McCain Almost Locks: (37 electoral votes)**
Arkansas (6), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), West Virginia (5)
McCain Locks: (93 electoral votes)
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Nebraska (3)*, Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)
*Nebraska divides its electoral votes by district and at-large. Maine does too but it appears all districts are locked up.
**A number of these Southern states appear to be locks and Obama only stands a chance if there is a massive African-American turnout.
***Ohio's polls have been particularly variable, even among reliable pollsters, so it's very hard to project which way the state will fall. Frankly anything between -3 and +7 wouldn't be too surprising.
Locks/Almost Locks: Obama 243, McCain 130
With Leaners: Obama 291, McCain 157, Tossup 90
With Tossups: Obama 338, McCain 200

